by Laura Lai/ Essay
The BREXIT process addressed at
every step different questions. Some were answered, others were not. Recently
the question that constantly repeats itself is ‘what’s next, if…?’. Then comes a diversity of opinions and of scenarios that give the impression that the
BREXIT is becoming a shambolic process and that the UK lost direction. It may create a sense of fear among people, although it is not the case. The question
of ‘next’ should not have its place in this context, because we still have ‘now’.
What? Following the vote in the UK House of Commons on January
29th, 2019 the British Government got a non-legally binding
suggestion to rule out the no-deal option, and a clear mandate from 317 MPs
(against 301) to replace the current formulation of
When? the ‘backstop’ with another arrangement. And the
replacement needs to be done in the next 2 weeks, because there are only 57
days to go until March 29th, 2019 – the BREXIT Day.
Who? In order to replace the current agreement on ‘backstop’
with another arrangement, the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, needs to make a
proposal and the other side, the EU, needs to deliberate on it. But at this
stage, from Brussels and from the other European capitals, London gets only
messages like ‘the only deal’, ‘non-renegotiable’, ‘the backstop is part of the
agreement’, etc.
During these 2 years of BREXIT
negotiations, Brussels developed some sort of habit to reject British proposals
without providing a reason or, even better, an alternative. Otherwise it is the
UK government having contributing for 46 years to the Union project. It is
its democratic right to choose and to try another path for its future. And the EU is a Union of democratic states. At this
stage, Theresa May does not seem to have partners to discuss to, simply because
the other part does not want to listen. In this context, it is logic that the British Prime Minister will return from Brussels with nothing or very little. And she will say that she tried, but she will not say how difficult is to deal with the European arrogance and inflexibility. If it was the other way around, the
British politeness would have imposed on the UK MPs to listen. But the British
politeness does not seem to have a European equivalent and Brussels does not
want to hear of an extra document to the Withdrawal Agreement, as a legally
binding document for the EU not to permanently trap the UK in the EU.
May the EU have ulterior motives
not to want to modify the ‘backstop’? One may think so, because under this
form, the EU can permanently trap the UK into the customs union, which will be
against the result of the referendum, meaning that it would be undemocratic. And Brussels wants to stand as a symbol of democracy. Furthermore,
by not seeking an alternative arrangement to the ‘backstop’, the EU is pushing
the UK towards a no-deal.
Why? Why would the EU push the UK towards a
no-deal? First, because the difficulty of the process, the panic of the first
days and the constantly announced chaos will frighten other EU Member States
tempted to leave the Union. And, second, the EU would have no responsibility of the no-deal,
because the whole responsibility will fall on Theresa May and on her
government.
How? Therefore, the constantly repeated question of ‘what’s
next, if…?’ should be replaced with another one, which focuses on ‘now’: How do
we get the attention of Brussels, which should be reminded that until March
29th, 2019 it is at the service of the UK, still a EU Member State? Questions
whose answers are a source of speculations, should be replaced with questions,
whose answers are brainstorming. And in so far, I have heard only one
suggestion, that of the BREXIT Minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, proposing that the UK
not to pay the 39 bn to the EU, if Brussels does not want to discuss another
arrangement for the ‘backstop’. Any other suggestions?