Brussels? Hello? 317 UK MPs Calling! Hello?

by Laura Lai/ Essay

The BREXIT process addressed at every step different questions. Some were answered, others were not. Recently the question that constantly repeats itself is ‘what’s next, if…?’. Then comes a diversity of opinions and of scenarios that give the impression that the BREXIT is becoming a shambolic process and that the UK lost direction. It may create a sense of fear among people, although it is not the case. The question of ‘next’ should not have its place in this context, because we still have ‘now’.

What?             Following the vote in the UK House of Commons on January 29^th, 2019 the British Government got a non-legally binding suggestion to rule out the no-deal option, and a clear mandate from 317 MPs (against 301) to replace the current formulation of

When?           the ‘backstop’ with another arrangement. And the replacement needs to be done in the next 2 weeks, because there are only 57 days to go until March 29^th, 2019 – the BREXIT Day.

Who?          In order to replace the current agreement on ‘backstop’ with another arrangement, the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, needs to make a proposal and the other side, the EU, needs to deliberate on it. But at this stage, from Brussels and from the other European capitals, London gets only messages like ‘the only deal’, ‘non-renegotiable’, ‘the backstop is part of the agreement’, etc.

During these 2 years of BREXIT negotiations, Brussels developed some sort of habit to reject British proposals without providing a reason or, even better, an alternative. Otherwise it is the UK government having contributing for 46 years to the Union project. It is its democratic right to choose and to try another path for its future. And the EU is a Union of democratic states. At this stage, Theresa May does not seem to have partners to discuss to, simply because the other part does not want to listen. In this context, it is logic that the British Prime Minister will return from Brussels with nothing or very little. And she will say that she tried, but she will not say how difficult is to deal with the European arrogance and inflexibility. If it was the other way around, the British politeness would have imposed on the UK MPs to listen. But the British politeness does not seem to have a European equivalent and Brussels does not want to hear of an extra document to the Withdrawal Agreement, as a legally binding document for the EU not to permanently trap the UK in the EU.

May the EU have ulterior motives not to want to modify the ‘backstop’? One may think so, because under this form, the EU can permanently trap the UK into the customs union, which will be against the result of the referendum, meaning that it would be undemocratic. And Brussels wants to stand as a symbol of democracy. Furthermore, by not seeking an alternative arrangement to the ‘backstop’, the EU is pushing the UK towards a no-deal.

Why?                          Why would the EU push the UK towards a no-deal? First, because the difficulty of the process, the panic of the first days and the constantly announced chaos will frighten other EU Member States tempted to leave the Union. And, second, the EU would have no responsibility of the no-deal, because the whole responsibility will fall on Theresa May and on her government.

How?              Therefore, the constantly repeated question of ‘what’s next, if…?’ should be replaced with another one, which focuses on ‘now’: How do we get the attention of Brussels, which should be reminded that until March 29^th, 2019 it is at the service of the UK, still a EU Member State? Questions whose answers are a source of speculations, should be replaced with questions, whose answers are brainstorming. And in so far, I have heard only one suggestion, that of the BREXIT Minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, proposing that the UK not to pay the 39 bn to the EU, if Brussels does not want to discuss another arrangement for the ‘backstop’. Any other suggestions?